The Kazakhstani tenge is showing a firm footing, prompting the financial market to revise its short-term and one-year targets upward. According to the October survey by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), experts expect the USDKZT exchange rate to reach 456.5 tenge per dollar by early November, down from 474.2 tenge a month earlier, infohub.kz reports.
The gap between the current and previous forecasts came to 3.7%, or 18.7 tenge. The 12-month outlook also improved markedly, to 502.6 tenge per dollar (analysts had previously penciled in 511.6 tenge).
The national currency is being supported by the high real yield on tenge-denominated assets, an inflow of non-resident funds into government securities, an upgrade of the country's sovereign rating, a widening trade surplus, and regular currency sales by the National Bank and exporters. An additional tailwind for the tenge will come from a planned increase in transfers from the National Fund in 2027, from 2.8 trillion to 4.4 trillion tenge.
With annual price growth slowing and demand subdued, experts have revised their annual inflation forecast: in 12 months, consumer price growth will fall to 9.7% (versus 10.4% in the September survey).
Slowing inflation gives the National Bank room to maneuver. Nearly 85% of surveyed market participants expect the base rate to be cut to 15.75-16.00% at the upcoming meeting on October 23. Of those, 71% anticipate a minimum step of 25 basis points, to 16.00%.
In 12 months, the AFK estimates, the base rate will stand at 14.5%. Experts note that the monetary easing cycle will continue, but the regulator will move cautiously because of tariff reform, budget stimulus and the risks of external shocks. As a reminder, in September the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan already raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5-8.5% and described the room for policy easing as limited.
Analysts cut their 12-month forecast for Brent crude from $83.7 to $79 a barrel. The revision reflects expectations of higher supplies from the Middle East and the release of part of strategic reserves by G7 countries.
Despite cheaper oil, experts kept their forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth over the next 12 months at 4.4%. Economic growth will be supported by easier financial conditions, budget injections and the implementation of major investment projects.
Earlier, Kursiv wrote that Halyk Finance analysts kept their end-2026 exchange rate forecast at 490 tenge per dollar. The tenge itself strengthened by 4.6% in September, to 440.49 per dollar.