The dollar exchange rate in Kazakhstan could eventually reach 500 tenge, but a sharp jump should not be expected. This forecast was voiced by Kazakh financier and analyst Rasul Rysmambetov in an interview with Atameken Business, reports infohub.kz.
According to him, the exchange rate movement will be gradual. "The rate will return to its previous value, not a million tenge per dollar, of course, but we will see 500. Maybe not in the very near future, but it will happen slowly and gradually. But in any case, it will happen," Rysmambetov said.
At the same time, the expert urged Kazakhs not to panic during the next fluctuations in the currency market. In his opinion, changes in the exchange rate within 10-15 tenge are normal for a market economy. "If the tenge starts to weaken, there is no need to rush and buy dollars. It should have been done earlier when the rate was much lower. Often people try to make money on small fluctuations, but in the end they get more worries than profit," the financier noted.
Rysmambetov emphasized that several factors influence the national currency rate at once. Among them are world oil prices, the operation of export infrastructure, the banking sector, the development of entrepreneurship, and the overall state of the economy. He recalled that recently the currency market was affected by events around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the situation in the Middle East, and the cost of oil. After the resumption of shipments through the CPC, some of these risks decreased, but they have not completely disappeared.
According to the analyst, the further stability of the tenge will largely depend on how much Kazakhstan can reduce its dependence on commodity exports. He believes that the economy needs diversification, and growth should be provided not only by large oil and gas companies but also by thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises.
The expert also suggested that a further reduction in the National Bank's base rate could make tenge assets less attractive to investors, which could increase pressure on the national currency. At the same time, Rysmambetov stressed that it is impossible to completely avoid exchange rate fluctuations. According to him, even in developed economies, currencies regularly change in price, so such changes are a natural part of a market economy.
Earlier it became known that Kazakhs doubled their purchase of dollars, although the tenge was strengthening. An economist explained what lies behind the different dollar exchange rates in Kazakhstan: read here.