The weighted average dollar rate in 2027 is expected to reach 499.4 tenge, according to analysts, while inflation may come in slightly above the current level at 9.9%, the website infohub.kz reports.
Inflation in Kazakhstan is slowing: it fell to 9.2% at the end of October. However, as the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) notes, analysts believe the figure could rise to 9.9% by the end of 2027.
Inflation expectations are being shaped by the risks of stronger budget and quasi-budget stimulus, tariff reform, possible external price shocks and a potential weakening of the national currency.
Meanwhile, the dollar rate is expected to stand at 462.4 tenge in one month and 499.4 tenge in a year. In previous months, analysts had projected the US currency above 500 tenge in 12 months.
Interestingly, amid slowing inflation, the National Bank is expected to pause its base rate cuts temporarily. 65% of respondents believe the rate will remain unchanged at 15.75% on December 4.
Next year, however, the National Bank is forecast to continue easing monetary policy in the country, with the base rate expected to reach 14.5% in 12 months.
Analysts have also upgraded their economic growth forecast. Kazakhstan's gross domestic product is expected to grow 4.5% over the next 12 months, up from 4.4% in the previous survey.
Investment projects, higher budget spending and high oil prices (forecast at $93.4 per barrel) could support the economy. However, persistently strong domestic demand and inflation risks may limit the pace of further base rate cuts.