By the end of 2026, overall inflation in Kazakhstan could reach 9.5%, and the dollar exchange rate could rise to 527.1 tenge by 2028, according to financial experts surveyed by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, reports infohub.kz.
In September, overall inflation in the country fell to 9.3%. However, experts surveyed by the National Bank believe that annual price growth may accelerate and reach 9.5% by the end of 2026. Inflation is projected at around 8.5% by the end of 2027 and 6.9% in 2028.
A similar trend is expected for the dollar exchange rate. As of October 16, the official rate is 454.14 tenge, but experts believe this level will not last long. According to their forecasts, the average rate in 2026 will be 479 tenge per dollar, rising to 499.6 tenge in 2027 and to 527.1 tenge by 2028. A month earlier, experts had projected 562.2 tenge per dollar in 2028.
Against this backdrop, respondents expect the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan to gradually lower its base rate: to 15.9% by the end of 2026, to 13.3% by the end of 2027, and to 11.5% by the end of 2028.
As for oil, Brent crude is currently trading at an average of $105 per barrel, according to Investing.com. However, experts believe the average price will fall to $80 in 2027 and to $75 in 2028.
Meanwhile, Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin earlier noted that the Kazakh government has prepared three scenarios for oil prices: under the base scenario, the price per barrel will be $70, and under the pessimistic scenario, $50.