Kazakhstan is expected to see a gradual decline in mortgage rates, but the process will be slow and take time. Over the next year, some market programs may become cheaper, according to infohub.kz.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has been cutting its base rate for two consecutive months: in June it dropped to 17%, and in July to 16.75%. Typically, second-tier banks adjust their loan and deposit rates accordingly. However, a widespread reduction in loan costs is not expected now.
As the portal "Krysha" notes, experts believe the decline will be gradual. Ramazan Dosov, chief analyst at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), thinks there are currently prerequisites for lowering the cost of market mortgages, i.e., those issued by banks independently, outside of preferential programs.
The key nuance is that commercial mortgages account for only 15% of new lending, with the rest being preferential programs. Therefore, a rapid decrease in loan costs is not expected in the coming year. "Mortgages are a long-term product, so banks consider not only the current cost of money but also inflation, the cost of raised funds, and risks," the analyst emphasizes.
Economist Eldar Shamsutdinov shares this view. He explains that the base rate is just a benchmark for the cost of money, but banks do not finance mortgages at that rate, using deposits, bonds, equity, and other sources. The cost of these resources declines with a lag.
"Everything happens in stages: first, money market rates change, then deposit and bond yields, then the cost of bank funding, and only then mortgage rates. This process can take several quarters," the economist explains.
At the same time, he suggested that in the coming year, only certain market programs might become cheaper, primarily for borrowers with a large down payment and a good credit history.
Experts believe that mortgages could become more affordable for Kazakhstanis, but several conditions must align: lower inflation, further cuts in the base rate, and cheaper long-term funding for banks.
In this regard, experts advise against postponing home purchases solely in anticipation of cheaper mortgages. In their opinion, one should buy a home when there is a real need. Waiting for the perfect moment or lower rates is pointless: over a year, prices may rise and bank conditions may tighten. The main thing is to rely on the family's financial capabilities, avoiding both unnecessary delays and unaffordable loans.
It is worth recalling that in 2027, changes are expected in mortgage lending rules, particularly concerning the determination of the maximum annual effective rate on loans.