Kazakh financier Sultan Elemesov does not expect the tenge to strengthen further in September, citing a possible cut in the National Bank's base rate at its upcoming meeting on September 4, reports infohub.kz.
The National Bank recently released a statement on the foreign exchange market, saying it would sell $200-300 million from the National Fund in September to ensure transfers to the republican budget.
Additionally, starting in September, the National Bank will begin mirroring operations with the National Fund. Under this mechanism, the volume of sales of previously purchased foreign currency in September will amount to $200-300 million.
Also during the month, the regulator will sell currency equivalent to 374 billion tenge as part of mirroring gold purchases. This mechanism involves the National Bank buying gold from domestic enterprises and then selling an equivalent amount of foreign currency on the foreign exchange market.
"Yesterday the National Bank indicated what to expect from the dollar/tenge exchange rate in September. The main thing is that they [the regulator] will increase currency sales from the National Fund. They should sell more than $1 billion, but honestly, I don't expect the tenge to continue strengthening for several reasons. First, at these levels, the National Bank is also actively buying dollars for the UAPF. In August they bought $721 million – that's a lot," said Elemesov.
Also, in his opinion, on September 4 the base rate could be cut by more than 50 basis points – below 16.25%.
"Secondly, despite the fact that it would probably be logical for the National Bank to pause on cutting the base rate, this Friday, possibly also due to the strengthening tenge, it will be forced to lower the rate again. And it might cut it by more than 50 basis points. So we will see the base rate below 16.25%," the financier believes.
Therefore, in his view, the National Bank's base rate cut, along with rising yields on government bonds in developed economies and the US, will likely put pressure on the dollar/tenge exchange rate.
"I have already said that such an exchange rate is unfavorable for the budget, so I expect a gradual weakening of the tenge, and eventually I will be right. So I will keep saying this so that one day I can say, 'I told you so,'" the expert added.
Earlier, Kursiv reported that experts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan forecast an average exchange rate of 490 tenge per dollar in 2026, down from the previous 500. In 2027, analysts expect 516.2 tenge per dollar instead of 532.1, and in 2028 – 562.2 instead of 566.6.