Kazakhstan's consumer lending market is set to face a turning point by early 2027, which will reveal the true quality of bank portfolios and the solvency of citizens, reports infohub.kz.
Lyazzat Ibrahimova, Chairperson of the Board of Otbasy Bank, stated in the Taldau Talks podcast that this period will show how retail loans behave under economic strain.
"The end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027 will show the crystallization of the market. That is, we will see what is happening with the consumer lending market and how the overall portfolio will behave," she said.
The head of Otbasy Bank also noted that the key factors are the allowable debt burden (payments should not exceed 50% of family income) and the total amount of the loan issued. Moreover, the bank will give preference to moderate loan amounts, as they are much easier to service during financial difficulties.
To illustrate the risks, Ibrahimova cited the example of two borrowers: a highly paid civil servant with a salary of 900 thousand tenge (with a payment of 450 thousand tenge) and a kindergarten teacher with an income of 300 thousand tenge (with a payment of 150 thousand tenge). In the event of simultaneous job loss, the borrower with the smaller payment can restore solvency much faster because they can find part-time work in the private sector. A person with a high income would need significantly more time to find a similar job with a salary of 900 thousand tenge.
"Therefore, these things are important for mortgages. First, the family income ratio should not exceed 50%, and the payment should be affordable and realistic," concluded Lyazzat Ibrahimova.