Supply disruptions from Russia and the Middle East continue to drain global diesel inventories, and even a recovery in refinery operations by the end of the year will not be enough to quickly make up the losses, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns, according to infohub.kz.
According to the IEA's October report, diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East fell by 1.3 million barrels per day in September compared with a year earlier. Other suppliers only partially offset the shortfall: overall global exports declined by roughly 700,000 barrels per day.
Because of the disruptions, countries are drawing down fuel stocks ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and the winter demand peak. Normally, reserves are rebuilt during this period.
The IEA expects that a recovery in refining by the end of the year will help begin restocking. However, that will not be enough to cover the accumulated deficit. The agency forecasts that the tight market conditions will persist through the first half of 2027 before beginning to ease in the second half.
In September, global diesel prices exceeded $200 per barrel. They have since declined but remain nearly twice the pre-crisis level.
"Record diesel prices are already having broad economic consequences, raising the cost of goods and affecting real incomes, economic activity and inflation," the IEA report says.
The recovery in supplies remains fragile: new attacks on energy infrastructure and vessels in the Middle East could once again curb exports.
Earlier, Kursiv reported that in the summer, amid a fuel shock in Russia, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy said there was no shortage of gasoline or diesel in the country. According to the ministry, fuel reserves are in line with standards and the domestic market remains stable.