The National Bank of Kazakhstan's decision to cut its base rate from 16.25% to 15.75%, announced on 23 October, makes borrowing cheaper and deposits less attractive, but it has yet to affect the housing market. Construction and renovation expert Dilyara Seitnurova said on her BuildExpert Telegram channel that a far larger rate cut is needed for mortgages to actually become cheaper, and that for now Kazakhstanis are better off saving, infohub.kz reports.

According to the expert, with a base rate of 15.75% and banks' margins factored in, construction projects in Kazakhstan are financed at a rate of around 20%. That is the rate at which developers receive loans, and it remains high. To bring it down, the National Bank would need to cut the rate further.

"The economics of projects only start to change once the rate falls below 13–14%, and that is a 2028 horizon. Even so, the sector is growing without cheap credit. GDP rose 4.2% over nine months, and the National Bank names construction as one of its main drivers. Investment in the non-resource sector, excluding budget funds, grew by 25%. Money is flowing into construction, but it comes from the budget, the quasi-public sector and companies' own funds, not from banks. For renovation in Almaty the conclusion is the same as a year ago: projects rely on public-private partnerships and subsidised programmes," Dilyara Seitnurova notes.

For homebuyers taking out mortgages, the change has also proved symbolic. "If a bank passes the cut on in full, the payment on a market mortgage of 20 million tenge over 20 years will fall by about 8,000 tenge a month. That does not make housing more affordable," the expert points out.

At the same time, she notes two pieces of good news from the National Bank's rate cut. First, inflation is slowing: it has fallen for 12 consecutive months and stands at 9.3%. Second, the public's inflation expectations are easing — Kazakhstanis expect prices to rise less, which also shapes their economic behaviour. In September, expectations fell from 12.1% to 11.8% over the month, dropping below 12% for the first time in a long while. This points to expectations of favourable economic conditions, which should boost activity among households and businesses.

But there is also bad news. "The National Bank warns that inflation may accelerate towards the end of the year because of the low base for utility tariffs. As a reminder, a moratorium was in effect from October 2025 to March 2026, and tariffs were cut by 14% at the time. The effect will play out in winter. For now, deposits are outpacing inflation with a margin. For a family weighing an initial down payment now against saving for another year, the arithmetic still argues against rushing," Dilyara Seitnurova concludes.