In August, currency exchange offices in Kazakhstan recorded a sharp rise in net sales of cash rubles: the figure jumped 49-fold to reach 6.2 billion tenge, according to the website infohub.kz.
Analysts at the First Credit Bureau, citing National Bank data, explained that net sales are calculated as the difference between sales and purchases. The indicator has now stayed positive for a second consecutive month, pointing to demand for cash rubles among the population.
"Until April 2022, public demand for cash rubles was consistently high: net sales ran into tens of billions of tenge every month. But then demand began to decline, eventually disappearing altogether for a long stretch. The longest run of negative net sales over the past incomplete seven years lasted 14 months, from December 2024 to February 2026," the bureau said.
Despite the sharp jump in net sales in August, analysts believe it would be premature to speak of a return of sustained public interest in cash rubles. So far, positive readings have been sporadic — four of the eight months elapsed in 2026 — and fall well short of the levels seen before April 2022.
"At the same time, one notable detail is worth pointing out: the surge in demand for cash rubles comes as the Russian currency weakens against the Kazakh one. In August, the tenge strengthened 10.1% against the ruble, hitting a more than 18-month high. The tenge's upward trend had by then lasted three months. We also note that among the regions, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda and Kostanay regions had the biggest impact on the rise in net sales — together they accounted for 60% of the monthly increase in absolute terms," the statement said.
The bureau added that in August, exchange offices' sales of cash dollars exceeded purchases by 141.4 billion tenge. Volumes rose 15% over the month and 2% over the year. Net sales of euros, meanwhile, hit a 14-month low of 2.1 billion tenge.