In 25 years, Kazakhstan could become a country of "demographic old age": according to forecasts, nearly one in five residents will be over 60, reports infohub.kz.
The Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF) has published demographic projections based on UN data. According to statistics, as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population was 20.5 million. Of these, 47.5% (9.73 million) were aged 25 to 65, and 9.6% (1.9 million) were over 65. By 2050, the population is expected to grow to 26.5 million.
Increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates will lead to a rise in the share of elderly citizens and a reduction in the ratio of working-age population to pensioners. According to UN and UAPF forecasts, by 2050 the share of Kazakhstani citizens over 60 will reach 18.8%, which corresponds to the international classification of "very high level of demographic old age".
The burden on workers will also increase: if in 2025 there were 4.95 working-age citizens per person over 65, by 2050 this figure will drop to 3.42. Thus, the burden will increase by more than 1.4 times.
The UAPF emphasizes that in such conditions, the importance of the funded pension system grows, as it forms future pensions through contributions from employees and employers, without creating long-term obligations for the budget and ensuring the sustainability of the pension system.
Earlier it was reported that Kazakhstani citizens who use a pension annuity to zero out the minimum sufficiency threshold and subsequently withdraw their savings may face a serious decline in income in the future.