Kazakhstan's Ministry of National Economy has published a draft resolution that would restore the additional excise tax on wholesale fuel sales from 95% to 50%. The document is posted on the Open NPAs portal, where discussion will run until November 5, according to infohub.kz.
The move follows a government resolution that took effect on September 22, 2026, raising the additional excise on fuel from 50% to 95% when wholesale prices for petroleum products rise. The measure worried market participants: analysts said it could ultimately push up gasoline and diesel prices for end consumers, while oil producers expected major losses. By their calculations, using the Atyrau Oil Refinery (ANPZ) as an example, cash losses would have amounted to 33,472 tenge per tonne of fuel at the 95% excise rate.
Now the 50% rate may be reinstated. The document states that the draft was "developed to improve the economic effect for oil-producing organizations, as well as to expand investment opportunities for the development and modernization of enterprises in the industry." The expected results are targeted for January 2027. The change could remove the risk of a sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices for end consumers.
Other factors, however, suggest that fuel prices will keep rising. Fuel prices in Kazakhstan remain low compared with neighboring countries, with the gap sometimes more than twofold. To keep prices that low, a mechanism requires oil to be sold on the domestic market at almost cost: even if oil costs around $100 a barrel, it must be supplied to refineries at, for example, $30.
As a result, oil producers are losing interest in supplying refineries, since doing so is unprofitable once transportation and other costs are taken into account. They find it more profitable to sell oil abroad than to try to develop domestic production.
As financier Galim Khusainov noted earlier, the fuel price gap has two negative consequences for the economy: illegal exports abroad, with the risk of shortages and annual losses of about 150 billion tenge, and a combination of cheap gasoline, inexpensive parking and low fines that drives growth in the number of cars, traffic jams and worsening air quality. In his view, all these factors will inevitably make market-based fuel prices in Kazakhstan necessary — something he says is in the interests of the entire economy. The process, however, may proceed gradually, since plans to equalize fuel costs across EAEU countries have been postponed until 2030.