By August 22, 2026, the geomagnetic situation, according to most experts, should begin to gradually stabilize after a period of increased activity on August 20–21. However, there is no consensus among specialists, and astrophysicists' calculations for the upcoming Saturday vary, reports infohub.kz.
The forecast summary includes different data: the UNIAN Geological Service reports that activity is starting to decline and conditions will be mostly calm, but brief disturbances up to G1 level are still possible. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts increased geomagnetic activity with a Kp of about 4, which is below the G1 storm threshold starting at Kp 5. The Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences records a slight increase in background within the green zone, while meteorologists in Novosibirsk note that conditions will remain normal with minor fluctuations of two to three points. A specialized calendar also defines this day as unsettled but with minor fluctuations.
A detailed breakdown of the forecasts is based on three scenarios.
The first scenario assumes a decline in activity: on August 22, solar activity will begin to decrease, with calm conditions expected during the day after the unsettled August 20–21.
The second scenario from NOAA gives a more cautious assessment with increased geomagnetic activity and Kp around 4, allowing for instability on August 22–23 due to high-speed solar wind streams, which corresponds to a moderate yellow level and does not threaten the health of most people.
The third scenario from IKI RAS and meteorologists describes the situation within normal limits and with a green zone. The reason for the discrepancies is the use of different models and methods, different assessments of the influence of coronal holes, and the forecasting horizon, since only data for one to three days are considered accurate.
Given the uncertainty of forecasts, weather-sensitive people should pay attention to their well-being on this day. It is recommended to reduce physical and emotional stress, maintain a sleep schedule and sleep at least seven to eight hours, drink more water to maintain fluid balance, and avoid alcohol, energy drinks, and excess caffeine. Walks in the fresh air are beneficial, and people with cardiovascular diseases need to monitor their blood pressure especially carefully. The final scenario for Saturday promises a moderately unsettled environment without strong storms and a gradual decline after the previous days.