The National Bank of Kazakhstan has once again lowered its base rate from 16.75% to 16.25%, directly affecting the financial lives of citizens. This indicator influences the cost of loans, deposit yields, and the exchange rate of the national currency, reports infohub.kz.
When the base rate is cut, loans for individuals and businesses typically become cheaper, as commercial banks follow the regulator's lead. However, the reduction is not immediate but occurs with some delay—banks need time to adjust their terms. The more significant the rate cut, the more noticeable the effect on loan interest rates, so the current change may have only a minor impact on borrowing costs.
Deposits also lose some yield when the base rate is lowered, and the larger the cut, the less favorable the terms offered by banks. Nevertheless, in the current situation, deposit yields still exceed inflation, keeping them attractive to the public. In 2026, the market is seeing a gradual decline in deposit rates—banks are adapting to expectations of further monetary policy easing. With another 0.5 percentage point cut, deposits for individuals may become even less rewarding.
A high National Bank rate makes the tenge attractive to foreign investors, and analysts previously linked the strengthening of the Kazakh currency in 2026 to an influx of foreign capital. A rate cut may reduce investor interest and lead to a weaker tenge and a higher dollar exchange rate. However, the current reduction is relatively small, so interest in the tenge may persist.
A sharp easing of monetary policy typically accelerates inflation, as cheaper credit increases the money supply and drives up prices. But in the current situation, the base rate is significantly above inflation (16.75% versus 9.8%), so its reduction to 16.25% is unlikely to cause a rise in the prices of goods and services.
Thus, the National Bank is gradually lowering the rate amid improving inflation, but acting cautiously. Current economic conditions remain favorable for savings: it is better to keep money in deposits than to take out expensive loans.