Financial market professionals have revised their tenge exchange rate forecasts downward. According to a National Bank of Kazakhstan survey, the average dollar exchange rate is expected to reach 500 tenge in 2026 and 566.6 tenge by 2028, reports infohub.kz.
Participants in the central bank's macroeconomic survey included representatives from AERC, Alatau City Bank, Alatau City Invest, BCC Invest, and other investment and financial firms. Analysts revised their dollar exchange rate expectations, slightly reducing optimism about a strong tenge.
According to their forecasts, the average dollar rate in 2026 will be 500 tenge (previously 498.8 tenge). In 2027, it is expected at 532.1 tenge (change +0.6 tenge), and in 2028 at 566.6 tenge (+4.1 tenge). The inflation forecast for 2026 remains at 10%, for 2027 improved from 8% to 7.8%, and for 2028 at 6.8%. In five years, experts expect inflation of 5.4%.
GDP growth estimates were slightly lowered: for 2026 from 4.9% to 4.8%, for 2027 from 4.7% to 4.6%, and for 2028 maintained at 4.3%. Expectations for the Brent oil price this year decreased from $86.1 to $84.6 per barrel. The base rate forecast remained unchanged: 16% in 2026, 12.8% in 2027, and 10.6% in 2028.
Currently, the dollar exchange rate stands at 469.55 tenge. The day before, after a notable strengthening of the tenge, the U.S. currency resumed its rise. At the close of trading on July 15, the weighted average dollar rate on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) was 470.53 tenge.