As the fourth anniversary of the January Events approaches, international experts say that while the unrest paved the way for Qasym-Jomart Toqaev to consolidate power, it failed to fundamentally transform the country's political system, reports infohub.kz.
According to an analysis published by The Diplomat, the current government, under the slogan "New Kazakhstan," has pushed out the old elite but retained the super-presidential system. Analyst Dimash Alzhanov says that since 2022, there has been an intensive process of returning assets belonging to the family and close associates of the First President. However, there are doubts about the transparency of this process. Officially, Kairat Satybaldy has returned assets worth $1.6 billion to the state, including shares in Kazakhtelecom, real estate, and expensive jewelry. Kairat Boranbayev handed over $270 million in assets and was released.
However, the foreign publication argues that these measures did not eliminate the oligarchic system but merely redistributed wealth within the elite. For instance, Jusan Bank, formerly under the Nazarbayev Foundation, and steel producer Qarmet (formerly ArcelorMittal) have passed into the hands of new investors. While representatives of the old Kazakhstan have left, they have been replaced by new loyal businessmen.
The central issue raised in the article is the upcoming political period. The current president's term ends in 2029. According to experts, the Akorda (presidential administration) may be considering two scenarios: amending the constitution to extend the term, or preparing a power transition to a successor. In this context, a referendum could be held in 2027 to change the structure of parliament. Under the plan, the Senate (upper house) would be abolished and a unicameral parliament established. This change is seen as a possible step to make it easier for the president to control the power transition.