In the first quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan's economy demonstrated high growth rates, significantly exceeding forecasts, but pro-inflationary factors persist, reports infohub.kz.
According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Committee, GDP for January-March amounted to 447.9 trillion soums (about $37.2 billion). In real terms, growth was 8.7% compared to the same period last year. The main contributors to GDP growth were industry (2.2 percentage points), trade and HoReCa (2.2 pp), and transport and communications (1.3 pp).
In the industrial sector, gross value added (GVA) reached 124.9 trillion soums, increasing by 8.0% in real terms. Manufacturing, which accounts for more than 80% of production, provided GVA of 102.6 trillion soums with growth of 9.1% year-on-year.
Uzbekistan continues to develop metal extraction and implement new projects. In March 2026, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev set annual targets: to extract 173 thousand tons of copper, 120 tons of gold, 211 tons of silver, and 8 thousand tons of uranium. Plans include implementing 90 projects in the mining and metallurgical complex. Negotiations are underway with foreign partners, including the United States and China.
In February 2026, a memorandum was signed with the United States on cooperation in rare earth minerals, as well as an agreement to create a joint investment platform. American company Traxys plans to invest $1 billion in tungsten, molybdenum, and copper projects. Chinese investors are ready to invest up to $1 billion in coal deposits in the Surkhandarya region. British Petroleum may join the development of oil and gas fields in Ustyurt, where Azerbaijani SOCAR is already operating.
Russia is participating in the construction of a small-scale nuclear power plant in the Jizzakh region. The project involves two VVER-1000 units and two RITM-200N units, which will provide more than 15% of the country's electricity needs.
Trade and IT services contributed 2.2 pp to GDP growth. GVA in this sector grew by 15.5% year-on-year, driven by rising household incomes and remittances. The IT industry grew by 18.3%, largely thanks to IT Park Uzbekistan, whose export revenue reached $191.8 million.
The largest IT Park resident, Uzum, attracted $130 million in investments, raising its valuation to $2.3 billion. Additionally, the International Center for Digital Technologies Enterprise Uzbekistan is being created with a special legal regime until 2100.
The Central Bank keeps its key rate at 14%, citing pro-inflationary factors. Core inflation in February was 6.3%, overall 7.3%. Producer price growth reached 12.9%, which could lead to cost pass-through to final prices. External conditions, including geopolitical tensions, also pose risks to prices.
Since April 2026, a ban on cash payments for certain goods and services, including real estate and cars, has been introduced. Authorities estimate this will reduce the shadow economy and increase bank inflows. However, experts note ambiguous wording and potential negative consequences for businesses.