Experts participating in the National Bank of Kazakhstan's macroeconomic survey have revised their expectations for inflation and the base rate trajectory for the medium term, according to infohub.kz.
Consumer price growth forecasts for 2027 were raised from 7.8% to 8.5%, and for 2028 from 6.8% to 7%. The inflation estimate for 2026 remained unchanged at 10%.
Given increased inflationary risks, analysts also adjusted the expected base rate path. In 2026, the average rate is projected at 16%, in 2027 at 13% (previously 12.8%), and by 2028 it will decline to 10.5%.
Forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth remain unchanged: GDP growth is expected at 4.8% in 2026, 4.6% in 2027, and 4.3% in 2028. However, long-term GDP growth was slightly lowered from 4.4% to 4.2%.
Brent oil price estimates for 2026 were adjusted from $84.6 to $82.7 per barrel. For 2027 and 2028, experts expect average prices of $75 and $73.7 per barrel, respectively.
Meanwhile, expectations for the national currency have improved noticeably. The average dollar exchange rate in 2026 is projected at 490 tenge, down from the previous 500 tenge. In 2027, analysts expect 516.2 tenge per dollar instead of 532.1 tenge, and in 2028, 562.2 tenge instead of 566.6 tenge.
Export revenue estimates for 2026 rose slightly to $95 billion, while for 2027 they were cut from $95 to $93.6 billion. The import forecast for 2028 was raised to $90.7 billion, up from the July estimate of $87.7 billion.
The National Bank conducts the macroeconomic survey regularly before making base rate decisions. It involves independent experts, analytical centers, and rating agencies. The published results reflect the independent views of market participants and are not the regulator's official forecast.
Earlier, Kursiv reported that in July 2026, annual inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 10.2%, down from 10.3% a month earlier.