After a relatively calm October, Kazakhstan's fuel market is bracing for change again: analysts expect major suppliers may revise wholesale prices for AI-92 gasoline and diesel fuel by 10,000 tenge per tonne as early as November, though they do not foresee a sharp price spike, infohub.kz reports.
According to experts, gasoline mostly fell in price in October, while diesel prices remained stable. Now, as the television report notes, price increases at filling stations will be gradual and uneven. Accumulated fuel reserves and competition among suppliers will help keep prices in check, while inflation and the shift to winter-grade diesel could push them higher.
"10,000 tenge per tonne is equivalent to roughly 7-8 tenge per litre. This also applies to gasoline, while for diesel it works out to around 9 tenge per litre. However, accumulated reserves and competition may hold back the pass-through of this increase to consumers. So the rise will be gradual and, I think, uneven across regions," oil and gas industry expert Anuar Kozhabekov said in his forecast.
The situation with gasoline and diesel differs. While gasoline prices largely depend on reserves and competition among suppliers, the diesel market is also affected by a seasonal factor: as cold weather sets in, demand grows for winter-grade fuel that can withstand low temperatures. According to experts, uninterrupted operation of refineries and timely fuel supplies will help avoid significant price increases.
However, fuel prices are not driven by domestic factors alone. "It will rise in any case as long as there is inflation in Kazakhstan. It is an interconnected process. And we should also note the external factor affecting fuel prices. Because countries like Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where prices are much higher, will put pressure on the Kazakh market," expert Arman Baiganov believes.
Fuel prices currently vary noticeably by region and filling station. A litre of AI-92 gasoline costs about 253 tenge in Astana and Almaty, and from 238 tenge and up in Shymkent. AI-95 costs about 60-70 tenge more. Diesel prices are higher still. Over the past year, AI-92 gasoline has risen 12% in price, and AI-95 by 15%.