In the first half of the year, Kazakhstan collected 42% more value-added tax than in the same period last year, but revenues still fell about 8% short of the planned level. Zhanibek Aigazin, head of the Center for Applied Economics Research, commented on this trend in an interview with Tenge Talks, as reported by infohub.kz.

The economist noted that despite significant growth compared to last year, the state failed to meet its target. According to him, this may be due to overly optimistic expectations regarding the effects of the tax reform.

"The state collected more VAT than before, but less than it wanted to collect," Aigazin summarized.

He also explained that when assessing the dynamics, one must consider the time lag in reporting, so the effect of the new tax conditions is only partially reflected in the first-half data.

Aigazin believes that one reason for missing the plan could be the state's overly optimistic expectations. "This just shows that the issue is probably more about optimistic expectations based on the tax reform, and naturally, an inflated plan," the expert said.

In his view, the situation with tax revenues should be considered in the context of overall economic dynamics. He pointed to signs of weakening aggregate demand and business activity: growth rates of the short-term economic indicator, trade figures, and business activity indices are lower than last year's values.

"In fact, we see some contraction in aggregate demand. Growth rates of the short-term economic indicator, trade figures, and business activity indices are all lower than last year," he noted.

Therefore, the expert believes the problem may not lie solely in tax collection. He does not consider tax administration to be the main explanation for the current situation. Possible factors include the overall state of the economy, weakening aggregate demand, the consequences of the tax reform, and overly optimistic forecasts used in forming the revenue plan.

It is worth recalling that since January 1, 2026, a new Tax Code has been in effect in Kazakhstan, with the main VAT rate at 16%. In June 2026, it became known that Kazakhstan showed the highest growth in VAT revenues in the EAEU. On August 11, Kanat Sharlapaev, Chairman of the Board of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs "Atameken," proposed setting a unified VAT rate of 5% for all medicines and medical devices, and fully exempting medical services from the tax.