Kazakhstan faces the risk of exhausting the limit on foreign currency transfers from the National Fund as early as the end of August, which may require adjusting the planned volumes of fund usage until the end of the year, reports infohub.kz.
Analysts at Halyk Finance, in their August foreign exchange market review, noted that by the end of the month, the annual transfer limit could be nearly exhausted. In their estimation, adjustments to the planned volume of National Fund usage may be needed before year-end.
The review emphasizes that in 2026, guaranteed transfers from the National Fund to the republican budget are set to decrease to 2.77 trillion tenge (in 2025 – 5.25 trillion tenge). As of August 1, transfers used already accounted for 84% of the annual plan, with a remaining balance of about 450 billion tenge. In September, foreign currency sales from the National Fund are planned at $200–300 million.
“In our estimation, if the current pace of using National Fund resources continues, the annual transfer limit could approach exhaustion by the end of August, which may increase the likelihood of adjusting the parameters of National Fund usage for the remainder of the year,” Halyk Finance noted.
According to experts, such a situation should become an additional factor strengthening the tenge. Additionally, under the mechanism of mirroring gold operations, foreign currency sales equivalent to 374 billion tenge are expected in September. The National Bank also announced that starting in September, it will begin mirroring operations with the National Fund on the domestic foreign exchange market. Under this mechanism, the volume of sales of previously purchased foreign currency in September is estimated at $200–300 million.
Experts note that for a more accurate assessment of the balance of currency flows, it is important to understand whether the announced sales volume ($200–300 million) pertains to the total volume of operations with the National Fund or forms a separate component of currency supply in the market.
“Our latest forecast for the tenge exchange rate will be updated to reflect changes in the volume of transfers from the National Fund. The main factors influencing the exchange rate remain the balance of currency flows in the domestic market, dynamics of global oil prices, and the activity of non-residents,” analysts added.
Earlier, the National Bank published an information note on the foreign exchange market. According to it, in September the regulator will sell $200-300 million from the National Fund to ensure transfers to the republican budget.