For the first time in a long while, Kazakhstan's rental housing market has developed an oversupply. According to real estate expert Dilyara Seitnurova, this will gradually shift the balance of power, allowing tenants to dictate terms with growing confidence, the website infohub.kz reports.
The specialist noted on her channel that the usual seasonal spike in rental prices may not materialize this year: supply is growing faster than demand, even though prices are already high.
According to the expert, installment plans offered by developers fueled interest in buying investment apartments, but many of these units now sit empty, and owners are trying to rent them out. Landlords are multiplying, while tenants willing to pay high rates are becoming scarcer. This trend should tilt the market in favor of renters.
Yet the statistics so far show the opposite. Since June, the annual growth rate of rental prices has accelerated every month, reaching 17% year-on-year in August, with an average rate of 5,350 tenge per square meter. Data from the Krisha portal indicate that in September rents continued to rise in most cities, while in Kokshetau and Pavlodar some apartments gained 20% or more.
The expert believes that a market reversal does not immediately affect rental prices. It first plays out at the negotiating table, while the price index lags behind the trends.
"So my assessment is this. The overhang of investment apartments is real and is weighing on the market. But the numbers have yet to show a turning point. It is too early to call today's market a renter's market," Dilyara Seitnurova noted.
For investors in rental real estate, the expert advised recalculating yields based on current rates. As supply grows, rental rates will come under pressure, and vacancy periods between tenants will lengthen. Renters, in turn, she said, can bargain more boldly with property owners. They can offer a long lease term in exchange for a fixed rate without frequent revisions, and an owner worried about vacancy will be more willing to offer discounts.
Earlier, experts assessed where it is more profitable to invest 25 million tenge — in a deposit or in buying housing for rent.