Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin on Tuesday explained why the government and the National Bank have such widely differing forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth, infohub.kz reports.
Journalists noted that the government projects growth of 5.3%, while the National Bank's forecast is considerably more modest at just 3.5%. Members of the press asked him to explain the reason for such a wide divergence in the estimates.
Zhumangarin stressed in response that forecasts are always rolling and depend on both external and internal factors.
"At a government meeting I spoke about three factors — internal factors that could not have been foreseen. That was the accident at Tengiz at the start of the year. Then there were problems with the CPC. We did not produce around 6 million tonnes of oil. It is lying in the ground, but it is not taking part in the economic process. What is happening in the external environment, in the Persian Gulf, drove the oil price up. And that led to a sharp strengthening of the tenge. We received less VAT on imports. Accordingly, exporters received less revenue because of the strong tenge. All these things have to be adjusted each time. And there are various mechanisms for that," he added.
As an example, he cited oil price forecasts.
"There is a so-called consensus forecast of the world's banks. If some banks give an oil price of almost 85 dollars, then some banks give an oil price of 54 dollars for next year. The US Energy Ministry gives 64 dollars. Accordingly, the consensus forecast for next year is 70 dollars. But a slightly different price was assumed. We set the exchange rate depending on the scenario we draw up. That is what a forecast is. And the task of the ministry in this case, and of the government, is to hit that forecast as accurately as possible," the head of the Ministry of National Economy stressed.
At the same time, banks, including the National Bank and international financial institutions, always give a conservative forecast, he said.
"This is linked to many factors. A conservative forecast is always better for the one who gives it. Because during the year you can always revise that forecast, rather than making a mistake on the high side. It is more professional, you understand, to give a conservative forecast. In fact, we bear responsibility for the forecasts we make," Zhumangarin assured.
We reported earlier that the head of the Ministry of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, gave his assessment of the tax reform carried out in the country. Zhumangarin also commented on the revision of articles in the Tax Code.