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Kazakhstan is gearing up to construct a fourth major oil refinery, with construction potentially beginning between 2027 and 2028. This ambitious project aims to address domestic fuel shortages and bolster the nation's export capabilities in refined petroleum products.

Boosting National Fuel Production

The planned refinery is expected to have a capacity of up to 10 million tons per year. According to Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzheev, the process of preparing project documentation is extensive and could take approximately two years, similar to the experience with expanding the Shymkent refinery. This timeline suggests that actual construction work would commence in the 2027-2028 timeframe.

Strategic Production Goals

This initiative aligns with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's directive to increase oil processing volumes to 40 million tons annually by 2033. Initially, this target was set for 2040. The new refinery's 10 million-ton capacity is crucial to achieving this accelerated goal.

Investment and Significance

Preliminary estimates place the cost of the fourth refinery, with its 10 million-ton annual capacity, at around $10 billion. This project is seen as vital in overcoming fuel deficits, particularly aviation fuel, which has become a concern despite plans for new international airports and increased passenger traffic.

Enhancing Refinery Output

Expansion projects at existing refineries are projected to increase the production of motor gasoline from 5.6 million to 9 million tons, aviation fuel from 0.7 million to 1.7 million tons, and diesel fuel from 6.2 million to 9.5 million tons. The Ministry of Energy is actively gathering data on raw material sources, product pipelines, and sales markets.

Addressing Shortages and Future Exports

By 2028-2030, it is anticipated that the three major existing refineries will reduce the aviation fuel deficit by 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons and eliminate the diesel fuel deficit. With the fourth refinery operational by 2033, Kazakhstan expects to fully resolve its aviation fuel shortage and begin exporting diesel and gasoline to neighboring countries.

Quality and Location

The depth of oil processing at existing refineries currently ranges from 89% to 94%, and the new facility is expected to achieve 95%. Furthermore, fuel quality will be upgraded to Class K5 (equivalent to Euro-4 and Euro-5 standards). Proposals have been made to locate the fourth refinery in the Mangystau and Ulytau regions.

The three major refineries in Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent are owned by KazMunayGas. The ownership structure for the fourth refinery is yet to be determined.

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