Renting an apartment often consumes a significant share of a family budget and lowers the standard of living. But the market situation could change due to an oversupply of housing, reports infohub.kz.
Autumn is traditionally a season of rising rents in major cities: demand grows because of students who cannot get enough dormitory places. However, construction and renovation expert Dilyara Seitnurova says in her Telegram channel BuildExpert that in 2026 the usual scenario may "break down." The reason is that the number of apartments on the market is accumulating faster than demand from renters.
According to the expert, the rental market still has many empty and unoccupied apartments that were bought specifically as an investment asset — the owners planned to rent them out and earn income. This is because Kazakhstanis actively bought real estate under installment programs from developers, who increased supply. However, renters' ability to pay is not keeping up with the market: incomes are not growing rapidly and barely outpace inflation. Despite the current situation, the market is not yet in a hurry to adjust prices.
As the expert notes, landlords continue to believe they can rent out housing at current prices and are even raising them due to inflation. In June, rental apartments added 13.1% year-on-year and only 0.4% month-on-month. In July, annual growth reached 14.2%, and the average rate nationwide was 5,134 tenge per square meter. In August, growth accelerated to plus 4.2% month-on-month and about 17% year-on-year, with the average rate reaching 5,350 tenge. In September, rents continued to rise in most cities, and in Kokshetau and Pavlodar some apartments added 20% or more.
"The forecast about oversupply is one thing. The fresh statistics on price growth are another. A turning point is always visible first in negotiations, and it appears later in the price index. The index lags. So my assessment is this: the overhang of investment apartments is real and is weighing on the market, but there is no turning point in the numbers yet. It is too early to call today's market a renter's market," the expert notes.
According to Dilyara Seitnurova, under current conditions and given the forecast of excessive growth in rental supply, Kazakhstanis should take certain measures. Landlords should recalculate yields at current rates, because as competition grows, housing prices will be under pressure, increasing vacancy time. An apartment for rent is no longer automatically profitable. Renters should offer their own prices by bargaining with landlords. They can offer a long term in exchange for a fixed rate without frequent revisions.
"An owner who fears vacancy will meet you halfway. Especially where three similar apartments are listed nearby," the expert believes.