In the second half of 2026, experts do not forecast a sharp drop in real estate prices in Kazakhstan. High mortgage rates continue to curb demand, but subsidy programs help the market remain stable. Buyers are still hoping for more favorable terms, but whether to postpone a home purchase and when mortgages will become more affordable was investigated by a correspondent from Atameken Business, reports infohub.kz.
At the start of June, the National Bank cut its base rate from 18% to 17% — the first reduction since October last year. The real estate market expected mortgage rates to fall more quickly as a result. However, experts believe the process will be gradual. Even a possible further rate cut will not lead to a rapid decline in lending costs.
"Prices will only go down when the National Bank rate falls below 15-16%, but given that inflation was 10.3% this month, it won't drop sharply. The National Bank plans to lower inflation to 8%, which will likely happen in 2027. At that point, commercial mortgages should become more accessible for a larger share of the population," says Dilyara Seitnurova, an expert in the construction sector.
Currently, commercial mortgages remain expensive. According to the expert, rates in Almaty reach 22–24% annually. Even with a lower base rate, banks will adjust terms gradually — this could take several months. For now, subsidy lending programs continue to provide the main support to the market, but their capacity is limited by set ceilings.
"State support should be targeted only to those in need. The government knows how many such people there are and works with them through Otbasy Bank instruments. The government is also expanding measures under the housing construction system, which Otbasy Bank operates, and that system is now accessible to other commercial banks. At least two commercial banks have shown interest," says economist Aibar Olzhaev.
Experts advise those who have already received approval for a subsidized mortgage not to delay their purchase. At the same time, they believe a sharp drop in housing prices is unlikely. One reason is rising construction costs. This year, developer expenses increased due to changes in tax legislation, including new VAT rules, as well as other cost increases. According to forecasts, commercial mortgages may become more affordable after inflation steadily declines. However, there is no guarantee that housing prices will fall significantly.