The average air temperature in Astana is rising by about 0.54 degrees Celsius per decade، and heat waves are becoming more frequent، reports infohub.kz.
Experts from RSE Kazhydromet explained in response to a query that the capital lies in a sharply continental climate zone، characterized by significant temperature fluctuations and periodic hot weather in summer. July is the warmest month with an average temperature of +20.8°C. The absolute maximum in Astana (+41.6°C) was recorded on July 22، 1936، confirming that extreme heat occurred in the past. However، the climate is gradually warming: long-term data show an increase of 0.54°C per decade.
Kazhydromet noted that the increasing frequency of heat waves is consistent with the overall warming trend. Nationwide، the average annual temperature has risen by about 0.4°C per decade since 1976، but the process is faster in Astana. Additionally، the cold season is shortening، snow melts earlier، the warm period is lengthening، and the number of extreme weather events is growing. The agency stressed that a single hot week cannot be considered standalone evidence of climate change؛ assessments are based on long-term observation series.
According to the advisory forecast، residents of Kazakhstan can expect highly contrasting weather in the near future. In early July، an active cyclone will bring rain and thunderstorms to most of the country. Hail and squally winds are possible in some places، and heavy precipitation is forecast in the south، mountainous and foothill areas of Almaty and Zhetysu regions. Then temperatures will rise sharply. In the first ten days of July، daytime highs are expected: in the west – up to +38°C، in Mangystau region – up to +40°C، in the south of the region – up to +43°C؛ in the northwest – up to +40°C؛ in the north – up to +38°C؛ in central regions – up to +40°C؛ in the south – up to +44°C؛ in the southeast – up to +42°C. In the second and third decades of July، heat will alternate with downpours، thunderstorms، strong winds، and dust storms. On the hottest days، temperatures across most of the country will reach +33…+39°C، and in the west and south – +35…+45°C.
In August، according to Kazhydromet's forecast، weather over most of Kazakhstan will remain moderately hot and rainy. The average temperature is expected to be near the climate norm، but in a number of western and southern regions it will be about one degree higher than usual. Precipitation in most areas is forecast to be above normal، although in some southwestern districts it will remain below the long-term average.