Brent crude is trading above $103 a barrel, prompting several of the world's central banks to tighten monetary policy to prevent energy-driven inflation from accelerating — while Kazakhstan, by contrast, continues to cut its base rate, infohub.kz reports.

For many countries, expensive oil is not a source of extra revenue and foreign-currency inflows but another cost item that drives up prices for goods and services. According to Investing.com, a barrel of Brent crude now costs more than $103.

Against this backdrop, a number of central banks have decided to raise their key rates. The European Central Bank (European Union) raised its three key rates by 0.25 percentage points on September 10. The Federal Reserve (United States) increased its federal funds target range by 0.25 pp to 3.75–4% on September 16. The Bank of England decided on September 17 to keep its base rate unchanged, though the committee's vote was split: three of nine members pushed for an immediate hike to 4% because of second-round inflation risks. The Bank of Japan raised its rate by 0.25 pp to 1.25% on September 18.

In every case, the central banks justified their decisions by the risk of second-round inflation effects from expensive oil. When it stays above $100, higher gasoline and diesel prices are quickly passed through to transport costs and then to price tags on food and consumer goods.

In Kazakhstan, however, the situation is the opposite. The National Bank of Kazakhstan is steadily lowering its base rate. If at the start of 2026 it stood at a record 18%, it was cut to 17% in June, then to 16.75%, to 16.5%, and in September — to 16.25%.

The reason is that expensive energy resources provide an additional inflow of foreign currency into the country, strengthen the budget and support the tenge. Combined with slowing domestic inflation (9.8% at the end of August), this gives the National Bank room to ease monetary policy.

Recall that when drafting the 2026 budget, Kazakhstan assumed an oil price of around $60. And we covered in detail here how the base rate cut will affect Kazakhstanis.