In August, the Kazakh tenge showed steady strengthening, and economist Ruslan Sultanov explained in his Telegram channel Tengenomika that expensive oil and the tax period supported the national currency. The currency strengthened by 13.1 tenge, or about 2.8%, reports infohub.kz.
The author of Tengenomika noted that August for the tenge began with strengthening: from 475.4 tenge per dollar at the beginning of the month to a minimum of 456.9 tenge by August 21. Then there was a partial pullback, but by the end of the month it stopped at 462.3 tenge per dollar. As a result, the currency strengthened by 13.1 tenge, or 2.8%.
The expert highlighted two key factors behind the tenge's strengthening. The first is rising oil prices. While Brent was at $80-84 per barrel at the start of the month, it climbed to $92-93 by August 20-21. This increased the supply of currency from extracting companies and improved expectations for export revenues.
The tax period, linked to VAT payments due by August 25, also affected the exchange rate. To pay taxes, exporters and large businesses needed funds in tenge, which spurred them to convert currency. For instance, when the dollar fell to a minimum of 456.9 tenge on August 21, closer to the tax payment deadline, trading volume reached an anomalous $671.3 million, with operations predominantly on the selling side of foreign currency.
Once the tax period ended and oil prices eased again, the currency gave back some ground.
"Until the 25th, increased sales of export earnings strengthened the tenge, and after that period passed, the balance of supply and demand began to normalize gradually," the expert noted.
According to the economist, global trends had little influence, as the global dollar index remained around 99-100 points all month, i.e., it did not weaken. Meanwhile, the ruble lost noticeably against the dollar, falling to 85.6 rubles per US dollar. The expert noted that this once again showed that the main factors of the month were oil revenues and local currency flows.
Sultanov added that the baseline forecast of the National Bureau of Economic Research at 470.5 tenge per dollar proved to be the most accurate.
"August showed the opposite of May's picture. If then the external backdrop quickly overshadowed the support of the tax period, in August internal currency sales coincided with rising oil prices and together formed a steady strengthening of the tenge. After the tax period ended and Brent corrected, part of the movement was retraced, but at the end of the month the national currency still remained significantly stronger than at the start of August," concluded the author of Tengenomika.
Earlier, Kursiv reported that experts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan forecast an average exchange rate of 490 tenge instead of the previous 500 tenge.