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The year 2026 marked a turning point in the Persian Gulf, as a significant conflict between the United States and Iran fundamentally reshaped the region's political and military dynamics. This confrontation led to a notable decline in American influence and spurred the development of Iran's military-industrial complex, according to an analysis by Sultan Akimbekov. The war disrupted the existing balance of power, introducing new security challenges.

Lessons from the Conflict: Capabilities and Limitations

While the U.S. demonstrated strength in aerial assaults, it was compelled to acknowledge limitations in conducting ground operations, rendering large-scale campaigns akin to those of 1991 or 2003 unfeasible. Iran, conversely, withstood strikes from the U.S. and Israel and even managed to inflict damage on its neighbors. However, this resilience also highlighted constraints on its ability to further expand its military might. The aftermath of the war suggests a potential arms race in the region, which could significantly impact Iran's defense industry.

Iran's Military-Industrial Complex and 'Emergency Preparedness'

In recent years, Iran has prioritized the rapid modernization of its military-industrial complex, aligning with its national ideology of resisting the "Great Satan" (the U.S.) and the "Little Satan" (Israel). The country achieved notable advancements, particularly in missile and drone technology, which posed significant challenges to the U.S. and Persian Gulf states during the conflict. Despite these successes, Iran's air force and navy were not prominently visible on the battlefield, and the effectiveness of its air defense systems proved limited.

The 'Axis of Emergencies': Syria, Hezbollah, and Strikes on Iran

The geopolitical shifts intensified in late 2024 and 2025. In September 2024, Israel weakened Hezbollah with an attack in Lebanon. By December 2024, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria collapsed. In the summer of 2025, Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran itself, delivering a severe blow to Tehran. The loss of Syria and the weakening of its influential forces in Lebanon, coupled with the loss of positions near Israel, indicated the ineffectiveness of decades of strategic efforts.

January 2025 Protests and Soviet Parallels

These developments sparked discontent among segments of the Iranian population and elite, raising questions about the state's allocation of vast resources to unsuccessful ventures. Public dissatisfaction over military expenditures escalated into widespread protests in January 2025. However, the state's ideological foundation prevented a change in its development trajectory, leading to a scarcity of funds needed to maintain its military-political power and support proxy forces. This situation drew parallels to the late Soviet Union.

Vulnerability of the US 'Shield'

The U.S. and its military bases had been instrumental in maintaining regional stability. However, the recent conflict exposed their vulnerability to Iranian attacks. Expensive air defense systems proved ineffective against cheaper Iranian drones and missiles, contributing to a reduction in U.S. influence in the region.

What Happens After the War?

Following the conflict, Iran will likely strive to compensate for its losses, a process requiring significant time and financial resources. This could be facilitated by the lifting of sanctions or revenue from transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as its oil production and export infrastructure remains intact. Iran may redirect its economy towards national needs and increase the role of security services to strengthen societal control. Persian Gulf nations will also be compelled to bolster their military capabilities, potentially leading to significant shifts in the regional security landscape.

This was reported by the Infohub.kz information agency.