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The United States has granted Kazakhstan an extended license to continue transiting Russian oil to China, pushing the deadline to March 2027. This decision is significant for Kazakhstan's role in the global energy market and its economic interests.

Continued Transit Operations

Following negotiations with the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the permit has been extended until March 19, 2027. This crucial authorization allows Kazakhstan to maintain the flow of Russian crude oil to China, even amidst global oil market volatility. The previous permit was set to expire in April of this year.

Currently, Kazakhstan facilitates the transit of approximately 10 million tons of Russian oil to China annually, which equates to roughly 200,000 barrels per day. Discussions are reportedly underway to potentially increase this volume to 12.5 million tons per year.

Significance for Kazakhstan

According to oil and gas expert Askhat Ismailov, the transit of Russian oil would have faced prohibition without a special U.S. license. Following sanctions against Rosneft in 2025, any operations involving the company became risky for all parties, including Kazakhstan and its national pipeline company, KazTransOil.

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy had previously approached the U.S. for a special permit to preserve oil transit operations. The initial permit was granted until April 2026 and has now been extended.

"What does this mean for Kazakhstan? The volume of oil in transit is about 10 million tons per year. Now, an increase to 12.5 million tons is being discussed. KazTransOil earns $150-190 million annually from this. For the U.S., this is another tool to curb oil price growth, as the market is supplied with additional volumes of oil," explained Ismailov.

This extension underscores the complex geopolitical and economic dynamics surrounding energy flows and sanctions, with Kazakhstan playing a key intermediary role.