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The future value of the Kazakh tenge against the US dollar is a subject of keen interest، with economists pointing to international political developments as a major driver. A key meeting between the leaders of the United States and China is expected to significantly impact the dollar index and، consequently، the exchange rate in Kazakhstan.

Dollar Index Sees Decline

Economist Eldar Shamsutdinov noted that the US dollar index (DXY) experienced a decline of over 10% in 2025. This downturn is attributed to a more relaxed monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve and rising interest rates in Japan. Additionally، public criticism of the US central bank by the President is seen as eroding confidence in the dollar، contributing to its weakening.

Expert Forecasts and Analysis

Shamsutdinov forecasts a potential further decrease of approximately 4% in the dollar index from its current level of around 100 points. This trend is anticipated to persist until the middle of the year، barring unforeseen geopolitical shocks. The economist highlighted the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in April as a critical event to monitor. He suggested that reports of China pre-emptively instructing banks to sell Treasuries might be a political maneuver ahead of these negotiations.

Factors Affecting the Tenge

Financial analyst Sultan Yelemessov shared that many of his colleagues predict the dollar exchange rate to fluctuate between 560 and 600 tenge by the end of the year. These projections are based on several underlying economic factors. One significant concern is the potential decrease in the real yield of government bonds، which could deter foreign investors. Such a scenario might lead to a sharp increase in demand for foreign currency.

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