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Kyrgyzstan's political arena is experiencing significant turbulence as the nation gears up for its next presidential election. Recent shifts in power dynamics have seen former allies turn into rivals, signaling a complex and potentially volatile period for the country.

Pre-Election Maneuvers

The political climate intensified in February 2026, marked by a significant development. A group of 75 influential figures, including academics, former prime ministers, and lawmakers, formally requested President Sadyr Japarov to hold early presidential elections. This call stems from legal ambiguities arising after the 2021 constitutional reform. Japarov was initially elected for a six-year term under the old constitution but the new one introduced a five-year limit and prohibited re-election, sparking debate about his eligibility for another term.

Some analysts suggest Japarov's actions might be a strategic move to preemptively sideline his main potential rival, Kamchybek Tashiev. Tashiev had previously not ruled out his participation in the upcoming elections, making this a significant political chess move.

Shifting Alliances in Politics

Former diplomat and politician Adil Turdukulov agrees with this assessment, noting that Tashiev's influence, particularly within security agencies and the economy, had at times seemed to exceed the president's authority. This perceived overreach reportedly caused concern within Japarov's camp.

"As you know, there are no friends in politics, and Kyrgyzstan's history has proven this many times, especially when it comes to tandems," Turdukulov commented.

Echoes of Presidential History

Kyrgyzstan has a history of frequent power shifts, often through popular uprisings. From Askar Akayev's ousting in the Tulip Revolution to Kurmanbek Bakiyev's fall, and subsequent presidencies by Roza Otunbayeva, Almazbek Atambayev, and Sooronbai Jeenbekov, each transition has been shaped by regional balances, elite intrigues, and public discontent.

Japarov's Explanation

President Japarov explained his actions as being primarily in the nation's interest, aimed at fostering unity rather than division between society and state structures. He also asserted that there is no division within his administration, such as a "Japarov team" versus a "Tashiev team.".

Tashiev's Reaction

Kamchybek Tashiev stated that the decision was unexpected, learning about it while in Germany. He urged his supporters to uphold the law and maintain stability within the country.

The Nature of Power in Kyrgyzstan

Power in Kyrgyzstan is often characterized by its closed, clan-based, and regional nature, relying on informal alliances between northern and southern elites. The Japarov-Tashiev tandem, for instance, saw the president (from the north) provide a semblance of legal legitimacy, while the head of the State Committee for National Security (from the south) exerted control through security forces. This balance, while functional, remains vulnerable to internal conflicts.

Turdukulov considers the five years of the Japarov-Tashiev tandem to be a significant period. However, a direct confrontation between them could have severe repercussions, given the presence of other influential groups like former organized crime syndicates, oligarchs, and the "Atambayev faction" ready to exploit any instability.

Re-election Prospects

A key question remains whether Japarov will seek to extend his term. While constitutional ambiguities could theoretically allow for early elections or a referendum, Japarov has dismissed such plans, stating that discussions about term extensions contradict democratic principles.

Tashiev's Future Role

According to Adil Turdukulov, Tashiev is unlikely to join the opposition or accept the position of Prime Minister, as it would place all responsibility on him. He may be waiting for the presidential elections, and could even potentially lead Sadyr Japarov's election campaign.

Profiles in Power

Sadyr Japarov: Commands significant influence through his "right to sign" authority, administrative resources, and high ratings among rural voters. His primary assets are his status as a legal arbiter and his pragmatic, patient approach to politics, waiting for opportune moments when rivals weaken.

Kamchybek Tashiev: Relies on control over security forces, vast intelligence gathered by the State Committee for National Security, and a strong base in southern Kyrgyzstan. His methods involve direct action and intimidating elites. Known for his impulsive public appearances, his slogan "The law is the same for everyone" has often contrasted with his personal emotional displays.

A Precarious Balance

The Japarov-Tashiev dynamic can be likened to two wolves sharing a kill; once the spoils are gone, they may turn on each other. Their tandem represents a fragile bridge over a chasm between the north and south, where a single misstep could lead to chaos.

A Volatile Situation

Investigative journalist Bolot Temirov links the February 2026 events to the election cycle and Tashiev's active PR campaign over the preceding six months, suggesting Tashiev posed a significant threat to Japarov. Temirov believes that had the elections occurred a week earlier with both Japarov and Tashiev participating, Tashiev would have likely won.

Temirov also points out that Japarov, elected under the old constitution, is not legally entitled to re-election. While a new constitution was adopted with transitional provisions, laws cannot supersede the constitution, suggesting early elections were necessary. "Sadyr Japarov fell into such a trap, and Kamchybek Tashiev tried to use this. Therefore, Tashiev's supporters gathered signatures and demanded early elections. But Japarov dismissed Tashiev from his post. This was an unexpected development," he stated.

Regarding whether Tashiev's threat has subsided, Temirov responded, "Of course, but not completely. As Tashiev remains without a position, his threat will decrease. There is nothing to promote, and I think he came to an agreement to remain quiet.".

A Ticking Clock

The events of February 2026 in Kyrgyzstan represent a struggle between two powerful factions. Kamchybek Tashiev's sudden dismissal and Sadyr Japarov's subsequent statements have exposed deep-seated processes previously hidden under the guise of a "tandem." While Tashiev has returned to the country and the external conflict appears resolved, the current "calm" in Kyrgyzstan may be a period of regrouping rather than the absence of danger. If Japarov proceeds with his term extension plans, Tashiev, without an official position, could emerge as a formidable opposition figure.

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