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Recent geopolitical shifts in the Middle East، particularly following the demise of Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the disruption within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)، could signal a major blow to Russia's regional standing. Kazakh entrepreneur Timur Seitmuratov، based in the United States، believes these developments may lead to a sharp decline in Moscow's influence in the strategically vital Middle East.

Eroding Russian Influence

Seitmuratov points to a pattern of diminishing Russian influence، noting previous losses in Venezuela and Syria، and the shift of the South Caucasus under Turkish influence. The current situation in Iran، he argues، removes what was perhaps Moscow's last significant foothold in the region.

"Iran is now slipping through the Kremlin's fingers،" Seitmuratov stated، highlighting the potential unraveling of Russia's long-standing partnerships.

Investment Uncertainty

The instability in Iran also casts a shadow over Russia's substantial financial commitments. In 2024 alone، Moscow reportedly invested $8 billion into Iran's economy، primarily focusing on the gas sector، making Russia the largest foreign investor in the country. Russian capital was also directed towards infrastructure، metallurgy، and agriculture.

Geopolitical Repercussions and New Opportunities

While definitive predictions are difficult، Seitmuratov suggests these tectonic shifts in the Middle East could have a significant impact on the conflict in Ukraine. He also notes that while Russia still has support from China، Beijing faces a considerable geopolitical setback with the potential loss of influence in Venezuela، Panama، and Iran.

"Beijing must now deeply reconsider the new situation،" he commented.

Furthermore، Seitmuratov posits that the reduced influence of Tehran and Moscow in the region could pave the way for Ankara's increased prominence in the Caspian region. This، in turn، could transform the idea of forming a Turkic union with Central Asian countries into a tangible project.

"Five years ago، such a scenario seemed impossible. But times have changed، and the situation has changed،" Seitmuratov concluded.

This analysis was reported by Infohub.kz.