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Kazakhstanis have a limited window to purchase dollars at a more favorable rate، with experts advising action before March 20th. This opportunity arises due to significant tax payments by businesses، which temporarily boost the national currency.

Understanding the 'Tax Pressure'

Entrepreneur Yerlan Tazhibayev، author of the Telegram channel 'taj.report'، explained that the current period is characterized by what he calls "tax pressure." Exporters are obligated to settle their Value Added Tax (VAT) and excise duties by March 20th. Furthermore، the annual corporate income tax declarations are due by the end of the month. Tazhibayev points out that during this time، the National Bank and the government benefit from acquiring tenge at a highly advantageous exchange rate.

A Temporary Window for Dollar Purchases

Tazhibayev likens the current tenge strength to a tightly wound spring، suggesting that the tax payment period has created an illusion of sustainable growth. He warns that this window of opportunity will close shortly after March.

"Buy dollars in small portions over the next 48 hours،" he advised. "While exporters are releasing cheaper currency into the market to pay taxes، you'll get the best entry point for this quarter. Don't wait until March 31st، because after the holidays، liquidity will return، and the exchange rate will undoubtedly rise."

He believes that the combination of tax week and Brent crude oil trading above $100 per barrel has brought Kazakhstan back to a more favorable exchange rate، estimating it between 450-470 tenge per dollar. Looking ahead، if oil prices remain between $100-$120 per barrel after late March، Tazhibayev predicts even more favorable tenge rates for Kazakhstanis.

The 'Artificial' Strengthening of the Tenge

The entrepreneur highlighted that TONIA rates in the REPO market have exceeded 17%، clearly indicating a shortage of tenge liquidity. "Banks and corporations are 'vacuuming up' the market to fulfill their obligations to the State Revenue Committee (tax authorities)،" he stated. "When everyone needs tenge at once، the dollar becomes a ballast that can be disposed of at any price."

Tazhibayev characterized the current strengthening not as fundamental economic growth، but as a "technical spasm" caused by seasonal factors and the extended Nauryz holiday break، which was moved to March 26th. He suggested that major players intentionally drove up interbank rates to push out smaller speculators from currency positions.

"The structural change is this: the current strengthening، the levels you see on the board، is artificial،" he concluded. "After tax accounts are paid and the market goes on holiday، the excess supply of currency will dry up. We will see a classic 'dead cat bounce،' meaning pent-up import demand will push the exchange rate back to its usual، weaker values."

He also noted that the dollar exchange rate in Russia has surpassed 82.1 rubles. Considering a 5.5 balance، this would equate to 451 tenge per dollar. To avoid losses from the currency exchange spread، he recommends purchasing "smart dollars" in the form of bonds.

As of the latest reports، the official exchange rate from the National Bank of Kazakhstan was 479.02 tenge per dollar and 5.82 tenge per Russian ruble. On March 1st، the rate stood at 497.56 tenge per dollar and 6.44 tenge per ruble. The official rate from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is currently 81.9103 rubles per dollar. On March 1st، it was 77.2736 rubles per dollar، and on March 1st، 2025، it was 88.2568 rubles، indicating a significant strengthening of the ruble against the dollar over the past year. Additionally، on March 1st، 2025، the National Bank of Kazakhstan's rate was 499.22 tenge per dollar. Brent crude oil futures for May 26، 2026، were trading at $103.55 (+0.126%) on the ICE exchange.

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