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Kazakhstan’s tenge firmed 1.3% in December to 505.73 per U.S. dollar, capping a 3.7% gain for 2025 as higher FX trading and targeted budget conversions helped balance the market without direct central bank interventions.

This was reported by the Infohub.kz news agency.

December snapshot: stronger tenge, bigger trades

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), the currency appreciated to 505.73 per dollar in December, while average daily FX turnover on KASE rose from $280 million to $359 million. Monthly trading reached $7.9 billion, and the NBK did not conduct FX interventions during the month.

Full-year 2025: 3.7% appreciation, $63bn in FX turnover

From the start of 2025, the tenge strengthened from 525.10 to 505.73 per dollar, a 3.7% gain. Full-year FX trading volume totaled $63 billion, up 15% versus the previous year.

National Fund conversions: $400m in December, $8.2bn in 2025

To finance the republican budget and the Taldykorgan–Usharal trunk gas pipeline, $400 million was sold from the National Fund in December—about 5% of that month’s exchange turnover, or roughly $18 million per day. Across 2025, National Fund sales amounted to $8.2 billion. For January 2026, the NBK expects to sell $350–450 million to convert budget transfers.

Neutralizing excess liquidity: ‘mirroring’ operations

In December, the NBK sterilized 475 billion tenge via so‑called ‘mirroring’ operations. Over 2025, reserve sales within these liquidity-neutralizing operations reached $7 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the regulator plans to sell foreign currency equivalent to about 1.1 trillion tenge to absorb excess liquidity.

Mechanically, when the National Fund sells FX for budget needs, tenge liquidity rises. To reduce pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, the NBK conducts counter FX sales from reserves to withdraw surplus tenge.

Quasi-sector flows and pension fund stance

Quasi‑sovereign entities sold around $315 million in mandatory FX proceeds in December 2025. The Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF) does not plan U.S. dollar purchases for December or January; its foreign-currency share remains above 40%.

Short‑term drivers and policy rate

The NBK notes near‑term tenge dynamics will depend on market expectations, quarterly tax payments, global risk sentiment and geopolitical developments. On 28 November 2025, the base rate was kept at 18%. Following that decision, the dollar eased on the exchange.