InfoHub Logo

Concerns about the Caspian Sea's future have been amplified as its water level has dropped significantly over the past two decades. However، experts suggest the vital body of water is not on the brink of disappearing، but rather entering a period of stabilization.

According to Mikhail Bolgov، a leading researcher at the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Doctor of Technical Sciences، the Caspian Sea's level is expected to stabilize around its current mark of -29.3 meters in the coming years.

Fluctuating Water Levels

Bolgov highlighted the dramatic shift in the Caspian Sea's water levels. In 1995، the sea stood at -26.5 meters. Today، it has receded to -29.3 meters. This decline is attributed to changing climatic conditions، which scientists now predict will lead to a period of relative stability at the current level.

"The amplitude of fluctuations in the level could be significant،" Bolgov explained. "The mean square deviation is about one meter."

No Imminent Disappearance

Despite the noticeable drop، the expert reassured that the Caspian Sea will not vanish in the near future. The sea has reached an equilibrium state after approximately 20 years of declining water levels.

"We expect some stabilization in the coming years because the level has been dropping for about 20 years and has reached an equilibrium state. It may fluctuate around this equilibrium with a large forecast interval، but it will not drop to 30 meters. The Caspian will survive in the foreseeable future،" he stated confidently.

It's worth noting that the Caspian Sea's level has been in a consistent decline since the mid-1990s. By 2025، it was projected to reach a record low below -29 meters. In 2025، leaders of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan، Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev، had previously warned of the risk of an ecological catastrophe for the entire region in their statements.