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The era of soaring apartment prices in Kazakhstan appears to be drawing to a close، according to market analysts. Following a period where real estate was seen as a foolproof hedge against inflation، experts are now observing a cooling trend in the secondary housing market، with prices beginning to decline.

Market Correction Underway

Data from Krisha.kz indicates a downward movement in the prices of pre-owned apartments over the past two months. This trend is not signaling a market collapse، but rather a necessary adjustment after a period of overheating، explains expert Alexander Pak. He emphasizes that the actual purchasing power of the population is now playing a more significant role in price setting than sellers' aspirations.

Factors Driving the Shift

Several key factors are contributing to this market recalibration. Firstly، a decline in purchasing power means that many citizens' incomes are struggling to keep pace with property values and mortgage payments. Secondly، a sense of psychological uncertainty prevails، with potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding the future of the dollar، mortgage rates، taxes، and the overall economy. This hesitation leads to postponed purchasing decisions.

A third factor is the prevalence of properties that were significantly overvalued. Many sellers are still operating under the assumption of last year's market conditions and are reluctant to acknowledge current realities. However، buyers are now more financially cautious، and the window for pricing errors has effectively closed.

Impact of Mortgage Rate Changes

The planned reduction of the maximum mortgage rate from 25% to 20% starting July 1st is not expected to significantly stimulate the market or drive price increases. Experts like Alexander Pak suggest that this change might lead banks to tighten their lending requirements، potentially increasing down payment amounts or introducing additional conditions، thereby reducing overall mortgage accessibility.

A More Realistic Market Emerges

The market is transitioning from an emotionally driven environment to one based on economic fundamentals. High-quality apartments offered at reasonable prices are finding buyers quickly. Investment analyst Nina Lukyanenko notes that the market is gradually shedding inflated expectations and becoming more grounded. The observed decrease in advertised prices for two consecutive months is a direct response to reduced purchasing demand.

Lukyanenko anticipates that the coming months will be characterized by negotiation. Buyers can expect more opportunities for bargaining، discounts، installment plans، and flexible terms. Sellers who adapt to the new market reality، build trust، and engage professionally with buyers are more likely to succeed than those clinging to outdated price expectations.

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