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Kazakhstan's real estate market is poised for continued price growth, with experts predicting that the upward trend in apartment values will persist through 2026. This outlook has significant implications for prospective homebuyers across the nation, impacting their ability to enter the property market.

Factors Driving Price Increases

Recent sharp increases in property prices have been attributed, in part, to artificial market dynamics. Despite these surges, demand for apartments in Kazakhstan has remained robust. At the close of the previous year, many construction firms raised initial housing prices, partly due to an anticipated increase in Value Added Tax (VAT). This, in turn, influenced prices in the secondary market, creating a sense of urgency among buyers to purchase before further hikes.

Market Activity in 2025

In 2025, the real estate market saw approximately 450,000 transactions. December was particularly active, with over 50,000 deals recorded. Experts note that this surge in activity was largely driven by market expectations. While VAT was reinstated for construction projects starting in January of the current year, its full impact on properties scheduled for completion in 2027-2028 is yet to be fully realized. However, some developers have already begun incorporating the tax into their pricing strategies.

"I am confident that a portion of the VAT has already been factored into the initial prices. Discussions about the removal of tax benefits have been ongoing. Prices have been gradually increasing by 2-3%. A sudden 16% jump would have led to a sharp decline in sales. This is pure speculation," commented Alexander Pak, a real estate expert.

Changes in the Construction Sector

The end-of-year sales growth was also influenced by amendments to the law on shared construction. These changes led to the temporary withdrawal of numerous construction companies from the market. The new Construction Code has also played a role, tightening industry regulations and altering the balance of power within the real estate market.

Future Outlook

International real estate expert Lev Tetin predicts, "The price growth dynamic will continue because the supply remains limited: 62% of construction companies that exited the market last year have not yet prepared their documents and obtained licenses to attract equity investors. The cost of money is decreasing, leading to an increase in real estate prices. We can expect a 15% price increase this year as well."

Experts anticipate that demand for real estate in 2026 will remain at current levels, with a slight increase. Projections suggest that the market will record between 460,000 and 470,000 transactions by the end of the year.

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