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The Middle East is increasingly discussing a "water war," a concept that experts believe Central Asian nations should heed as a serious warning. Despite recent rainfall and international water conferences, the region remains vulnerable to severe water shortages. Current measures, experts argue, are insufficient to address the looming crisis.

Water Scarcity Becomes a Security Threat

According to expert Bolat Esekin, water issues are rapidly shifting from an environmental concern to a critical security matter, with the potential to ignite future conflicts. Iran's experience serves as a stark illustration of the consequences of inefficient water resource management, leaving the nation grappling with a severe water crisis, the risk of relocating its capital, and social instability.

The ongoing conflict in the region has further exacerbated the situation, threatening water infrastructure. The reliance of Persian Gulf countries on desalination plants makes them particularly vulnerable, with experts cautioning that damage to these facilities could trigger a humanitarian disaster.

This situation holds significant implications for Central Asia, a region with similar natural conditions and historically poorer water security compared to many other parts of the world. Esekin points out that the core problem isn't solely climate change, but rather human mismanagement of water resources, disrupting natural processes and depleting freshwater supplies.

The UN characterizes such a scenario as "water bankruptcy," where regions consume resources beyond their hydrological capacity. Central Asia acknowledges the risks of water scarcity, melting glaciers, desertification, and pollution. However, the transition from declarations to concrete actions remains a significant challenge.

International Cooperation is Key

Emin Dzhabbarov, an orientalist, emphasizes that no single nation can resolve water issues alone. International cooperation, technology transfer, and knowledge sharing are essential. Iran's international isolation, experts suggest, has been a contributing factor to the worsening of its water crisis.

A report by American experts Frederick Starr and Alexander Thompson also highlights the urgent need for Central Asian countries to collaboratively manage their dwindling water resources. Failure to do so could lead to increased regional tensions, water-related conflicts, and new crises.

Meanwhile, Central Asia continues a slow dialogue on resolving its water problems. The region remains one of the most vulnerable to water scarcity globally, yet experts stress that concrete steps to prevent future crises are not being taken quickly enough. Time is running out.

Water Conferences: A Call for Security Ministers?

While recent rainfall in May provided temporary relief to many Central Asian countries, experts remain concerned about a water-scarce future. The IV Water Conference, held in Dushanbe from May 25-28 with 2,500 experts from 110 countries, including representatives from Kazakhstan, addressed these pressing issues.

Bolat Esekin, coordinator for the Platform on Water Resources and Climate Change in Central Asia, noted the attendance of emergency ministers at the Dushanbe conference. He suggested that future conferences might need to include defense ministers, as water issues are increasingly becoming security concerns rather than purely environmental ones. "This is the situation we have reached through the usual management of water resources," Esekin stated.

Esekin, a regular participant in water-related events, found no groundbreaking news at the Dushanbe conference. While participants raised crucial points, concrete solutions were lacking. He observed a contradiction: discussions about the Aral Sea's plight and Balkhash Lake's threats continue, yet water consumption, particularly for water-intensive crops like cotton and rice, is increasing. New dams and reservoirs are being built, and energy and water consumption are rising, indicating a divergence between words and actions.

These actions, Esekin warned, disrupt natural balance, climate, water, and ecological stability, potentially leading to future conflicts and crises. The consequences of such resource mismanagement are currently evident in Iran, where an extreme water crisis has threatened the safety of millions for years.

Last year, the situation became so dire that Iran's president considered relocating the capital to a more water-secure area, as Tehran was virtually out of water. The ongoing conflict has further complicated Iran's situation, though the issue was temporarily sidelined by spring events.

From Environmental Issue to Security Concern

This spring's rainfall in Iran offered a glimmer of hope after years of drought, raising expectations for improved water availability. However, the WANA news agency reported that these hopes might be illusory, with the water crisis remaining a critical issue for the entire country.

The crisis in Iran stems not just from resource scarcity but from inefficient consumption and mismanagement. Agriculture accounts for a significant portion of water use, often characterized by inefficiency and high losses. In the domestic sector, excessive consumption and wasteful habits persist due to cultural, economic, or lack of effective control factors.

Experts anticipate the water crisis in Iran will resurface. "Water problems remain one of the most pressing issues on Iran's internal agenda. The water crisis has not gone away. When the dry season begins, this problem will reappear. Military actions have damaged water infrastructure, including desalination plants, but no new solutions have been proposed," stated orientalist Ruslan Suleimenov.

Iran confirmed damage to desalination plants during recent attacks in March. Western experts fear Tehran might target desalination stations in neighboring Persian Gulf countries. The Arab monarchies' dependence on these plants is so high that experts believe even minor damage could cause a humanitarian crisis, leading to what is being termed a "water war."

Suleimenov added, "The vulnerability of the Arab monarchies is much higher. For them, desalinated water is as important as oil – it is a vital resource with no alternative. Until a full alternative to desalination plants emerges, water supply will remain a key topic for the Arab monarchies in the region."

Compared to its neighbors, Iran's situation is more manageable due to its size, allowing it to address local water supply issues despite national scarcity. However, environmentalists warn this advantage is not permanent. Iranian authorities must confront accumulated water problems to avoid threats to their economy, social stability, and political regime.

How the Current Conflict Impacts Environmental Issues

Bolat Esekin, like water experts worldwide, closely monitors the Middle East situation. "What is happening in the Middle East today is very close to us, as Kazakhstan and all of Central Asia are located in similar natural conditions. We are much less provided with water resources compared to countries like Russia, Canada, or the USA," Esekin stated.

He reiterated his consistent message at international forums, including the Dushanbe conference: the primary driver of escalating water crises is how we manage this resource. "We have become accustomed to only taking water and considered its replenishment nature's job. But this model no longer works," he continued.

Esekin clarified that the crisis in Iran results not only from the country's actions but also from a broader process. Human interference in natural systems has disrupted the global water cycle, leading to depleted freshwater reserves. "The amount of water on the planet is the same, but access to it is becoming more difficult. It flows into the ocean and stays there. The loss of freshwater will inevitably affect food security, the economy, and social stability. Prolonged droughts will increase tensions, leading to migration, unemployment, and new conflicts," he added.

What is "Water Bankruptcy"?

The situation described by Esekin is termed "water bankruptcy" by the UN. In January 2026, a major UN report recommended using the term "bankruptcy" over "water crisis" or "water scarcity." Kaveh Madani, lead author of the report and director of the UN University's Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, stated, "This report tells an uncomfortable truth: many regions are living beyond their hydrological means, and many critical water systems have gone bankrupt."

Esekin believes that while water issues are global, Central Asia is at high risk of being among the first to experience the consequences of this bankruptcy. "The cause of the escalating crisis is not climate change, but our actions, our programs that disrupt natural processes and water flows. To stop this process, we need to rely on science and experts. Engaging society and demanding action from governments is crucial: we do not want to face a situation of crisis, famine, refugees, and conflicts," the expert concluded.

Concerns about the region's future challenges were discussed at a high level during the ecological summit in Astana in April, attended by leaders from Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Mongolia. The "Central Asian Ecological Cooperation Declaration" was adopted, acknowledging that regional countries cannot solve these issues alone. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined the main threats for the entire region.

The question now is whether the region can move from declarations to systematic actions before the crisis dictates its terms. According to Esekin, Central Asia has no more time to waste.

Iran's Lesson: Water Crises Cannot Be Solved Alone

Another crucial lesson from Iran's experience for Central Asia is the importance of international cooperation in addressing water and climate issues. Without regional and global partnerships, tackling these challenges will be exceedingly difficult.

Emin Dzhabbarov, an orientalist and international security expert, believes Iran's prolonged international isolation is a key reason for its current water crisis. "No country in the world can solve such problems alone. It requires international cooperation, access to technology, and exchange of experience. If a country remains outside these processes, it will inevitably fall behind," Dzhabbarov stated.

He added that if Iran remains isolated, it cannot independently resolve its drought and water scarcity issues. Despite its educated workforce and scientific developments, the country needs access to global technologies, research, and water resource management practices. Sanctions complicate this process.

Dzhabbarov considers the water crisis in Iran a result of systemic errors made over years, from state policy down to domestic attitudes towards water. "This is an important signal for Kazakhstan to reconsider its approach to water consumption. For example, I know that clean freshwater is used in car washes. We need to study global technologies, implement beneficial solutions, improve legislation, and in some areas, introduce strict requirements and fines. Unwise water use is prevalent in both urban and rural areas. All of this needs re-evaluation," Dzhabbarov urged.

Meanwhile, Frederick Starr, a prominent expert on Central Asia, and fellow American specialist Alexander Thompson published a report in February 2026 titled "When Water Becomes Glue: Solving Central Asia's Water Dilemma Through Partnership." The report also emphasizes that countries cannot solve this issue individually. The authors warn that if Central Asian countries do not learn to jointly manage their rapidly diminishing water resources, the region risks increased tensions.

There is cause for concern: water availability has decreased by more than threefold in the last decade, 40 percent of resources are lost ineffectively, and conflicts over water access at the region's borders have already occurred.

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