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The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Kazakh Tenge has seen a significant increase, sparking concerns about the country's economic stability. Analysts are predicting a continued weakening trend for the national currency.

Tenge's Depreciation Explained

At the end of April, the dollar traded at 457 Tenge on the National Bank's trading platform. Currently, the average weighted exchange rate on the KASE exchange has climbed to 475.63 Tenge. The situation is even more pronounced at exchange offices, with the highest selling rate for dollars in Astana reaching 477 Tenge and in Almaty, 478 Tenge by midday.

While the National Bank's official rate remains at 472.48 Tenge, it is expected that the regulator will be compelled to adjust the rate to reflect the market conditions. A majority of experts are confident that the Tenge's depreciation will persist.

Future Projections

Looking ahead over the next year, experts forecast the dollar to trade between 500 and 555 Tenge. For instance, Halyk Finance projects the dollar to reach 540 Tenge by the end of the year. Economists are considering three potential scenarios for how the situation might unfold.

The Iran Factor

A key factor influencing global markets currently revolves around Iran. Should Tehran and Washington reach a peaceful agreement, Iranian oil could enter the market. This scenario could lead to a decrease in Brent crude oil prices, consequently contributing to the depreciation of the Tenge.

It is known that the US and Iran are engaged in secret negotiations regarding a 60-day ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While US President Donald Trump has stated that an agreement is ready, the parties are in a dispute over who will make the first move. Iran is demanding the release of $12 billion before clearing the strait of mines, while the US expects Tehran to dispose of its enriched uranium.

This is reported by the information agency Infohub.kz.