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Political upheaval in Venezuela could put more crude on the market, pushing Brent toward $50–40 a barrel and adding pressure on Kazakhstan’s budget and the tenge, analysts warn.

This was reported by the Infohub.kz news agency.

What markets are pricing now

Brent crude is trading near $61 per barrel, while cash exchange points in Kazakhstan are selling the U.S. dollar at 513–516 tenge. Analysts see limited near-term moves but warn of rising volatility over a longer horizon if Venezuelan supply builds.

Venezuela’s capacity and timelines

“The direct effect will not be immediate; it could take at least a year to show. Over a longer horizon, global oil prices may move onto a downward trajectory,” said Marat Kairlenov, director of Ulagat Consulting Group.

Experts note the U.S. Permian Basin is approaching a maturity phase, while Venezuela—home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves—could lift output with infrastructure rehabilitation. Historically, the country produced up to 2.5 million barrels per day.

Financial analyst Arman Beisembaev estimates a base case near $50 per barrel and a downside scenario toward $40 if Venezuelan barrels return in scale.

Impact on the tenge and the budget

Cheaper oil would first hit export revenues. A weaker Russian ruble could transmit additional pressure to the tenge via trade channels. While OPEC could, in theory, offset oversupply, analysts note the group increased output last year, amplifying market pressure.

Kazakhstan will continue to anchor its interests in the Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak projects. Yet transit risks persist: attacks against the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) last year reduced throughput, and experts do not rule out recurrences, including incidents involving tankers.

The political backdrop

On January 3, 2026, the United States carried out a military operation in Venezuela, the report says. President Nicolás Maduro was taken out of the country and charged in New York with drug terrorism, conspiracy to traffic cocaine, and illegal possession of weapons and explosives. U.S. President Donald Trump said the situation in Venezuela is under control.

Outlook

Analysts do not expect abrupt short-term swings. But if Venezuelan supply gradually expands, the resulting price pressure could become an additional medium-term risk for the tenge and Kazakhstan’s fiscal buffer.