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In the last six months، the Kazakh Tenge has seen a notable strengthening، with its exchange rate against the US dollar dropping by approximately 80 tenge. However، this positive economic development has not translated into lower prices at the checkout counters of supermarkets across the country. Experts are now shedding light on why goods are not becoming cheaper despite the national currency's improved standing.

The Psychology of the Market: The 'Ratchet Effect'

Financial consultant Turar Abdi explains this phenomenon using the theory of 'sticky prices' and the 'ratchet effect.' In economics، the ratchet effect describes a mechanism that allows movement in only one direction. Similarly، during currency fluctuations، prices tend to surge rapidly. However، when the exchange rate reverses، prices often remain at their elevated peak.

Businesses، Abdi notes، utilize a stronger currency not to offer discounts but to increase their profit margins. Furthermore، entrepreneurs often calculate their costs based on older، higher exchange rates when purchasing goods or paying for expensive logistics. Selling these existing stocks at a loss is not a viable business strategy. An additional factor influencing prices is the constant 'fear of devaluation،' as businesses brace for potential future currency increases.

Internal Pressures and Imported Inflation

Economist Toleugen Askarov points to objective factors contributing to this situation. He argues that the benefits derived from a cheaper currency are entirely offset by internal inflationary pressures. "We import not only goods but also the rising cost of their prices. This leads to a dual inflation،" Askarov states. "A strong Tenge can only cushion the impact؛ it cannot force price tags downwards."