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Kazakhstan may lift its temporary cap on fuel prices in March, a move that could push gasoline and diesel sharply higher — potentially even double — with broader knock-on effects for inflation and household bills, economist Arman Beysembayev warned on January 6, 2026.

This was reported by Infohub.kz news agency.

What the expert says

Speaking to KTK TV channel, Beysembayev cautioned that the end of the moratorium could trigger swift market repricing. In some sectors, he estimates price increases could reach up to 40% as value-added tax is passed through the entire supply chain to end consumers. He described current fuel prices as effectively “frozen,” warning they may “thaw” in spring, with a risk that retail gasoline costs could approach a twofold jump.

Where prices stand now

Prices for A-92 gasoline and diesel have been held at October 16, 2025 levels under the temporary cap. Authorities have not yet announced an official decision on removing the moratorium, but industry watchers expect clarity in the coming weeks ahead of March.

Why it matters

Fuel is a key input for transport and logistics. A sizable increase would hit motorists, raise operating costs for small and medium businesses, and add pressure to consumer prices. Beysembayev also flagged the risk of higher utility tariffs as a secondary effect if energy and logistics costs climb.

Official stance

The Energy Ministry previously said price stability after the moratorium would rely on a mix of regulation and competitive market mechanisms to maintain balance. Parameters of any transition will be disclosed once formal decisions are made. Beysembayev, however, believes some inflation forecasts from the National Bank and the Ministry of National Economy may be overly optimistic if market adjustments unfold rapidly.

What to watch next

Key signals will include any formal notice on ending the cap, guidance on post-moratorium pricing, and updated inflation assessments. Businesses and households may want to factor in scenarios for higher fuel and utility costs as March approaches.