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The Caspian Sea, a vital ecological and economic resource, is facing a significant environmental challenge as its water levels continue to drop. This alarming trend has prompted Kazakhstan's Ministry of Ecology to develop projections for the sea's future, highlighting two distinct scenarios by the year 2050.

Concerns have been mounting among residents, with visual evidence of the receding shoreline emerging. A resident of Aktau shared images in February illustrating the extent of the sea's retreat. Blogger Nurken Tazhibay also documented changes between 2024 and 2026, drawing further attention to the issue.

Caspian Sea Level Decline Confirmed

The Ministry of Ecology has officially confirmed the declining water levels of the Caspian Sea. Data indicates that between 2006 and 2025, the coastline has retreated in some areas by as much as 30-35 kilometers. As of 2025, the average water level in the northeastern part of the sea was recorded at -29.23 meters, reaching -29.47 meters in the eastern sector. The average level within Kazakhstan's portion stood at -29.35 meters.

Identifying At-Risk Regions and Causes

Experts have identified three primary regions most vulnerable to the sea level drop: the northeastern Caspian coast, the shores of the Mangystau region, and the delta of the Ural River. The key contributing factors cited include climate change, increased evaporation, reduced riverine water inflow, and human economic activities.

Projections for 2050

According to forecasts provided by "Kazhydromet," two scenarios have been developed for the Caspian Sea's future. In an optimistic scenario, the sea level could drop to -29.8 meters by 2030 and further to -32.4 meters by 2050. A more pessimistic outlook suggests levels could reach -30 meters by 2030 and potentially fall to -34 meters by 2050. Such a decline would lead to further coastal retreat and the transformation of coastal areas into dry land.

Addressing the Challenge

This issue transcends national borders, affecting all Caspian littoral states. In response, Kazakhstan has initiated the development of an international program focused on water resource conservation. Furthermore, the Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, established in 2025, is actively conducting research in the coastal zones. The institute plans to expand its monitoring efforts to the sea's water basin in 2026.

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