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Kazakh households weighing whether to save in tenge or hold cash dollars in 2026 are getting clearer signals: strong deposit yields and mainstream forecasts now tilt the math in favor of the tenge.

This was reported by the Infohub.kz news agency.

Why the math favors the tenge

A saver who buys cash dollars at 510–515 KZT today would need the exchange rate to surge to roughly 620–630 by year-end just to break even. By contrast, many tenge deposits offer 18–20% per annum, providing an immediate income cushion.

What the forecasts say for 2026

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) targets an average USD/KZT of about 535 in 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) cite a 535–560 range. Against that consensus, a 620-plus breakeven looks unlikely, increasing the opportunity cost of holding cash dollars.

Growth drivers at home

EDB expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow around 5.5% in 2026, supported by a national infrastructure plan and the Investment Order program. The economy is leaning more on domestic demand and processed exports.

Stronger metals have added buffers: estimates point to notable gains in gold (+66%) and palladium (+73%), supporting the National Fund and budget and easing oil dependence.

Inflation, rates and real returns

The IMF warns that higher VAT, corporate taxes and utility tariffs could push 2026 inflation toward 11%. EDB, however, sees disinflation to about 9.7% if monetary policy stays tight. That backdrop implies the National Bank will maintain a relatively high base rate, underpinning positive real returns on tenge deposits.

Global context: the Fed and capital flows

The U.S. Federal Reserve is in an easing cycle, with three rate cuts signaled for 2025 and two more in 2026. Lower U.S. Treasury yields typically redirect capital toward emerging markets, and rate differentials can support the tenge.

AFK notes Kazakhstan’s stock market rose 24.4% in 2025, underscoring the improving appeal of local assets.

Hidden costs of cash dollars

Buying cash FX often incurs spreads and fees that can shave off 3–4% instantly. Until the tenge weakens by at least that much, those costs are not recovered—while a tenge deposit accrues interest from day one.

Expert views and caveats

Freedom Holding Corp. CEO Timur Turlov expects the tenge to remain resilient in 2026 and sees little chance of a sharp USD/KZT spike. The National Bank has also pointed to investment inflows and stable oil prices as supports for the currency.

Still, savers should align choices with goals, liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Diversification may be prudent, but on current data, tenge deposits look well placed for 2026.