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Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with Iran's recent actions disrupting regional stability and posing new threats. Political analyst Sultan Akimbekov has provided a detailed analysis of Iran's current strategy, examining who is behind these moves and their potential consequences.

Iran's Increased Risk-Taking

According to Akimbekov, Iran has significantly ramped up its activities. The country is not only targeting U.S. military installations but also civilian infrastructure in Arab nations along the Persian Gulf, including Oman and Qatar. These actions suggest Iran is prepared to further inflame the situation in the region.

Iran's Objectives

Akimbekov believes Iran is pursuing two primary goals with these maneuvers. Firstly, it aims to exert pressure on the United States through regional countries. Secondly, Iran seeks to influence the global economy by creating the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, thereby driving up oil prices.

Reaction from Muslim Nations

However, the analyst noted that Iran's reliance on the unity of Muslim nations is unlikely. Most Arab countries adhere to Sunni Islam, and their stance towards Shia-majority Iran has historically been cautious. Even in predominantly Shia countries like Iraq, the ruling elite may choose to avoid involvement in the conflict.

Weakening of Proxy Forces

Iran's proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, are not as potent as they once were. Their financial and military capabilities have diminished considerably. Nevertheless, Iran will undoubtedly attempt to leverage these groups.

Internal Political Struggles

Power struggles within Iran are also intensifying, particularly following the death of the country's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is growing, and uncertainty surrounds the emergence of a new supreme leader. This internal dynamic could significantly impact Iran's foreign policy.

Conclusion: Resource Depletion

In conclusion, Akimbekov stated that the outcome of Iran's current strategy hinges on who runs out of resources first. The key questions remain how well Iran can withstand aerial attacks and maintain internal stability. If Iran is truly playing its 'final hand,' it must either fight to the end or seek negotiations.

This was reported by the information agency Infohub.kz.