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Kazakhstanis should brace for a gradual increase in fuel prices as experts forecast a steady rise driven by global oil market volatility. While a significant price surge is not immediately expected, adjustments are likely on the horizon.

Moratorium on Price Hikes May End

According to Nurlan Zhumagulov, Director of the Energy Monitor Fund, the current moratorium preventing fuel price increases could be lifted soon. However, he anticipates a slow and steady climb rather than a sudden spike.

Gradual Price Adjustments Expected

"We have sufficient reserves of gasoline and diesel, so prices will rise gradually. This is likely to begin closer to the summer," Zhumagulov stated. He believes that prices need to be adjusted by at least the VAT difference, approximately 4%.

Global Oil Prices Could Reach $200 Per Barrel

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have already pushed Brent crude oil prices above $110 per barrel. Zhumagulov warned that if logistics worsen and delivery delays occur, oil prices could potentially soar to as high as $200 per barrel. He also noted, however, that fuel prices in Kazakhstan are not directly tied to global prices due to a portion of oil being supplied under regulated domestic market conditions.

No Fuel Shortages Anticipated

Despite the potential for rising oil prices, experts do not foresee a gasoline shortage in Kazakhstan. Zhumagulov emphasized that the capacity of domestic oil refineries is sufficient to meet the country's internal demand.

Potential for Significant Price Increases

Economist Rakhymbek Abdrakhmanov suggests that fuel prices could see more substantial increases in the future. He posits that as Kazakhstan integrates its fuel market within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), domestic prices may align with those in neighboring countries, where gasoline is considerably more expensive.

"We could see a 70-90% increase in prices. Perhaps not all at once, but it will happen very quickly," Abdrakhmanov commented. Considering the current price of AI-92 gasoline at 239 tenge per liter, this could lead to significantly higher costs for consumers.

To stabilize the market, experts recommend transitioning to free pricing, with targeted support measures for the population.

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