InfoHub Logo

Kazakhstan is facing a significant surge in household debt, with the total amount owed by citizens now surpassing the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. This trend highlights a growing reliance on credit among the population.

Borrowing Outpaces Income Growth

A recent economic review by the World Bank for Kazakhstan, released in February 2026, points to a concerning trend: while citizens are actively taking out loans, this borrowing spree is not matched by a corresponding increase in real income. Experts estimate that by the fourth quarter of 2025, household debt as a ratio to wages reached 51 percent, a figure that eclipses the peak recorded just before the 2008-2009 banking crisis.

Declining Incomes, Rising Debt

The gap between borrowing and income has widened considerably in recent years. Between 2020 and 2025, the real volume of household loans nearly doubled, while the actual income of the population saw a modest increase of only 15 percent. The situation worsened in 2025, with real incomes beginning to decline again after a recovery in 2023-2024. According to World Bank data, by December 2025, incomes had decreased by 6 percent year-on-year.

Debt as a Substitute for Income

Despite falling incomes, the demand for loans remains high. World Bank experts suggest that many households are increasingly using credit to maintain their current consumption levels and cover essential expenses. This has led to debt effectively becoming a substitute for earned income.

Inflation's Impact on Consumers

High inflation is further exacerbating the situation. Rising prices erode purchasing power, placing a strain on household budgets. This is particularly felt by low-income families and vulnerable groups, including those in rural areas. The overall economic picture is complex, with high GDP growth figures contrasting with persistent inflation and declining real incomes for the population.

Banking Sector Resilience

As of 2025, retail loans constituted 57.2 percent of Kazakhstan's bank loan portfolio, with consumer loans making up 38.5 percent. While regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive household debt, leading to a slowdown in consumer loan growth in 2025, the banking sector has demonstrated resilience. Banks continue to innovate and maintain stable financial performance amidst these challenges.

Бұл туралы Infohub.kz ақпарат агенттігі хабарлайды.